MP predicted to lose seat at next election

Conservative MP Julie Marson is predicted to lose the seat of Hertford & Stortford at the next election, according to analysis by Electoral Calculus.

The new analysis suggests the seat is on a knife-edge, with Labour having a 49% chance of taking the seat and Consevatives with a 47% chance.

The constituency boundaries were changed in 2023, losing Great Amwell and The Stansteads to neighbouring Broxbourne. If the old boundaries are used to predict the outcome then the Conservatives would have a 50% chance of winning, against 47% for Labour.

Conservatives are predicted to have the greatest support from rural communities, with towns more inclined to vote Labour.

Labour have yet to announce their parliamentary candidate for the constituency but the most recent analysis puts them 0.1% ahead of the Tories.

If Mrs Marson were to lose at the forthcoming election it would be the first time a single term MP had not been relected in the constituency.

Looking at the national picture, Electoral Calculus are predicting a Labour landslide:

Labour's lead strengthened to around 20pc over the Conservatives in January, and they have also edged ahead of the SNP in Scotland. And Reform UK have overtaken the Liberal Democrats to be the third most popular GB party. But Reform are not yet likely to win any seats, and Labour is set for a landslide majority.

:: Electoral Calculus, 1st February 2024

The neighbouring constituency of Broxbourne is predicted to remain in Tory hands after MP Charles Walker stands down, whilst Hertfordshire North East, where Conservative Oliver Heald is also standing down, is predicted to fall to Labour.

Electoral Calculus use advanced regression techniques for analysing polling data.