Labour set to unseat local MP Julie Marson

Labour are on course to win the Parliamentary seat of Hertford & Stortford at the next election according to the most recent analysis by Electoral Calculus.

The new analysis suggests that Labour will have a 12.8% majority, with an 80% chance of taking the seat from Conservative MP Julie Marson.

The last analysis put the seat on a knife-edge with just 0.1% between the Tories and Labour. That gap has now widened significantly.

All but three of the 17 constituency wards would be won by Labour.

The constituency boundaries were changed in 2023, losing Great Amwell and The Stansteads to neighbouring Broxbourne. 

Labour have yet to announce their parliamentary candidate for the constituency.

If Mrs Marson were to lose at the forthcoming election it would be the first time a single term MP had not been relected in the constituency.

Electoral Calculus use advanced regression techniques for analysing polling data.